New Poll Predicts Minority Federal Government


A new poll is predicting a minority government from this fall's federal election.

The Mainstreet poll found almost 55 per cent of those asked believed there would be a minority government and a little over 25 per cent felt there would be a majority result.

The poll also found there was about an even split over whether people believed the Liberal or Conservatives would form the minority government.

It also found over 63 per cent would consider voting strategically to prevent a party they oppose from winning.

University of Windsor Political Science Professor Lydia Miljan told AM800 listeners on the Lynn Martin Show she takes the results with a grain of salt.

Miljan says the moves Prime Minister Trudeau has made recently at least show where the heaviest campaigning will happen.

"It really looks from my perspective that the battleground is going to be Ontario," says Miljan "He's pretty much lost the west to the NDP, the Greens or the Conservatives.  But Ontario is where you've got 121 seats that's really going to break him."

She says we can expect a lot of negative campaigning so the parties can hold each other to account.

"Wait a minute, what's the record, is this realistic and how is this going to help or harm us.  That's what a negative campaign should be about." states Miljan  "Saying you can put out your positive vision, but we're going to show people why that may or may not be accurate."

Miljan says this result so far from the vote is not unusual.

"Every time we go into elections as long as I've been doing this in the 2000's, it's always been a prediction of a minority government.  We haven't actually had that many, we've had two in the last 20 years.  It always tends to be it's going to be a minority, so I don't put a lot of weight into those stories."

The Mainstreet poll asked 2463 Canadians for their opinion July 30th and 31st.

The poll is accurate plus or minus 2 percent, 19 times out of 20.