Ontario COVID-19 situation stable but fragile, science table says

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TORONTO - Ontario's science advisors say COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions are currently not increasing in the province as vaccination coverage grows.

But new modelling from the science advisory group say the situation is fragile and future projections are wide-ranging.

The group says there's uncertainty in their predictions because it's too early to see the impact of in-person schooling and work resuming, and of people possibly spending more time indoors during cold weather.

The models show daily case counts could increase next month and into November, with more than 1,000 cases if the status quo in public behaviour and policy holds, and 5,000 cases daily if transmission increases significantly.

The group says the fourth wave of infections has currently flattened thanks to public health measures and immunizations, which have proven effective at keeping people out of hospital.

But it notes that COVID-19 cases are on the rise among young children who aren't currently eligible for vaccination.