Light showers, storms possible across southern Alberta today

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I wonder what today might have been with a little more surface moisture.

As it stands, we don't have enough. Evapotranspiration (moisture being pulled out of the soil) is a large helping hand for storm development, which sits in the cards for today as a weak trough piles through. Showers across southern Alberta will range from periodically heavy (up to 10 millimetres) to a light sprinkling. The median across this span is two to three millimetres.

As far as storm energy is concerned, the metric for that (convective available potential energy, or CAPE) is rather low; just 500 J/Kg (of energy per mass of air). CAPE isn't considered "large" until you push above 1500 J/Kg, and isn't into a greater extremity until you hit 2500 J/Kg.

The best shot here is for a few weak storms with low potential to travel. There is a chance we see scattered lightning bands across the prairies as well.

Our five-day forecast lightens up and warms up into a ridge for a couple of days; those are the two we can expect to pile above seasonal. After that, we're into another trough and another rain event, with mainly cloudy days that will generate showers once again. As the pattern has unfortunately shown for the last little while, rainfall amounts across our forecast models continue to project lower amounts the closer the event gets. The jury's still out for the weekend, but farmers may be left wanting once again.

Your five-day forecast:

Today:

  • Partly cloudy, afternoon rain, slight thundershower risk
  • Daytime high: 12 C
  • Evening: ongoing showers, low 2 C

Wednesday:

  • Mainly sunny
  • Daytime high: 14 C
  • Evening: mainly clear, low 4 C

Thursday:

  • Partly cloudy
  • Daytime high: 18 C
  • Evening: mainly cloudy, low 7 C

Friday:

  • Mainly cloudy, rain
  • Daytime high: 14 C
  • Evening: showers, low 3 C

Saturday:

  • Mainly cloudy, rain
  • Daytime high: 10 C
  • Evening: showers, low 3 C

Today's photos are beauty shots of our city:

Some really cool photographs today – firstly, Natasha sent one from Horseshoe Canyon:

Then, Maggie sent this photo, here:

She said she lives a few kilometres southwest of Turner Valley, but that there is no snow if you drive four kilometres north! It's amazing what a little adjustment in elevation can do.

You can submit your weather photos here, or email me: Kevin Stanfield , OR you can just tweet at me!