Trudeau leads area voters on trust; three-way tie on who best understands the GTA, new poll finds

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau holds a campaign event in downtown Vancouver, B.C., on Wednesday, Aug 18, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the most trusted party leader among Greater Toronto Area voters but residents are statistically split three ways as to who best understands the region, a new poll suggests.

In a live agent poll commissioned by CP24 and CTV News, Nanos Research found that among more than 500 GTA voters, 30 per cent agreed Trudeau was “someone I trust to make the right decisions,” while 24 per cent picked Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and 17 per cent picked NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

On whose vision would be best for the GTA, 26 per cent of respondents selected Trudeau while 21 per cent picked O’Toole.

Seventeen per cent said Singh’s vision was best for the GTA and a full 31 per cent said either none of the six party leaders named had a good vision for the region or were unsure.

“Residents of the GTA more often say Justin Trudeau is someone they trust to make the right decisions and has a vision that would have a positive impact on the GTA compared to other federal party leaders,” pollster Nik Nanos wrote.

On the question of who best understands issues facing the GTA, all three major party leaders were within the margin of error of each other, with Trudeau at 24 per cent, O’Toole at 23 per cent and Singh at 20 per cent.

“Around one in four GTA residents each say Justin Trudeau or Erin O’Toole best understands the important issues in the GTA,” Nanos wrote. “Residents in the 416 area code are more likely to say Trudeau would be best at this (26 per cent, 905: 23 per cent), while 905 residents are more likely to say O’Toole (29 per cent, 416: 15 per cent.)”

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IS THE TOP GTA ISSUE

A second poll commissioned by CP24 and CTV News by Nanos Research found housing and related issues about affordability and cost of living are the primary concern of nearly half of all GTA voters.

And there are significant disparities in who was favoured between the City of Toronto and its surrounding suburbs in the 905 area code.

On the question of trust to make the right decisions, 416-area code respondents picked Trudeau over O’Toole; 33 to 18.5 per cent.

But in the 905, respondents picked O’Toole 29.2 per cent of the time on the question of trust in decision making, versus 27.6 per cent for Trudeau.

Across both area codes and all questions asked, O’Toole led Trudeau among male respondents by seven to eight percent, while Trudeau beat O’Toole among female respondents on all questions asked by 11 to 18 per cent.

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN THE GTA

The poll suggested up to 12 per cent of likely voters are still completely unsure of which party leader best understands issues they say are important to them.

The poll reached 518 adults in the Greater Toronto Area between Aug. 28 and 30, connecting both landline and cell phone subscribers with live poll agents for interviews.

The pollster weighted the group of respondents queried to reflect the age, gender and geographic composition of the GTA.

It is considered accurate within 4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Voters head to the polls on Sept. 20.

NANOS METHODOLOGY

Information about election issues is comprised of data from the last three days of the campaign for 518 voters in the GTA between August 28 and August 30, 2021. The margin of error for a survey of 518 respondents is ±4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent samples are stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.