We could see between 3,000 and 6,500 daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December

A slide from the province models

New projections show Ontario could see as many as 6,500 new daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December unless steps are taken to limit the spread of the virus.

The new modelling released today shows the province will reach 2,500 new daily cases by that time if the growth rate is at three per cent, or 6,500 if growth is at five per cent.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the experts behind the projections, says a five per cent growth rate is in line with the current situation, or even ``slightly optimistic.''

He says more restrictions should be put in place in some of the hot spot areas in order to reduce cases and the impact on the health-care system.

The new projections for how the virus might spread in Ontario come as the province has reported daily case increases above 1,000 for the past week.

Ontario reported another a daily record of COVID-19 cases today, with 1,575 new infections recorded.

Ontario Health

But, in releasing their new provincial modeling data today, officials say the pandemic is having a significant impact on mental health as well as physical health.

They say, "overdose deaths have been a serious public health issue for over a decade. An average of 34 deaths per week occurred in the 3.5 months pre-pandemic. This increased to 46 deaths per week in the first 3.5 months of the pandemic (38% increase).1 We should not expect this to improve after the pandemic."

Ontario Health


Ontario Health